EURO 2020 Tactical Bites (June 16): Are Italy Legit?
Their offense is great but is their defense sustainable?
Welcome to the continuation of what will be a very regularly occurring column on EURO 2020, where I quickly touch on the most interesting schemes, tactical trends, and player performances.
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Italy have made their mark in EURO 2020.
They blew away Turkey 3-0 to kickstart the whole competition and defeated Switzerland by the same scoreline yesterday, racking up 4.4 xG for and 0.6 xG against in the aggregate.
That victory against Switzerland capped off a 29-game unbeaten streak that stretches all the way back to 2018. A record like this should normally give a team favorite status, but the quality of their opposition has caused many to hold back on rating the Italians.
A EURO qualifying group consisting of Finland, Greece, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Armenia, and Liechtenstein is as easy as it gets, and Italy haven’t faced elite competition since their loss to Portugal in 2018.
Though Switzerland aren’t pushovers, Turkey have looked pretty poor in the tournament thus far, giving Italy another simple go of it in EURO 2020.
All of this makes Gli Azurri tough to rate. Ryan O’Hanlon attempted to do so recently, naming them the sixth best contender while expressing a lot of uncertainty over their placement.
In truth, we won’t be able to tell how good they are until they face the best teams (and, even then, the one-off nature of these games could reveal very little), but I believe enough can be drawn from their two group stage wins to guesstimate their quality.
Italy’s Verticality in Possession
Italy’s possession game stands out as one of the reasons to consider them a real threat in this tournament. They have some of the most refined patterns of play out of any international side in the world and possess a magnificent synergy that allows for the kind of fluidity and interchanges that are necessary to disorder deeper blocks.
Italy form a back three in build-up, with the right back tucking inside, allowing Leonard Bonucci to act as the base of his side’s possession play. This allows all of Italy’s midfielders to sit ahead of the opposition’s front two or three, creating a number of options to beat the first line.
Jorginho and Manuel Locatelli tend to offer themselves to the ball, forming situational double pivots and constantly seeking to escape cover shadows. On the other hand, Nicolò Barella likes to push high into that right halfspace, placing him across from Lorenzo Insigne, who acts like a #10 on the left.
The selected profiles and their nominal deployment creates the foundation for seamless shifts to different midfield structures, whether that be through Locatelli pushing higher up or Barella dropping. Add in Ciro Immobile’s willingness to come deep and Domenico Berardi roaming inside, and Italy have an attacking game plan that puts more pressure on the center than any other team in EURO 2020.
Roberto Mancini’s side can be remarkably patient at trying to take advantage of their numbers and all that movement through the middle, calmly rotating the ball till a passing lane opens. Once a gap is spotted, everything happens at blinding speed. Bonucci is usually the initiator of this tempo change, unafraid of firing tough forward passes into his teammates, who look to combine at pace and immediately attack the last line.
Against pressure, Italy are quite happy to clip lofted deliveries from wide areas into a forward moving towards their own goal, reflecting their desire to constantly find options between the lines.
In that last clip, which was the opening goal of the game, Locatelli is the man who makes the late, untracked run into the box. This is important because it highlights how each reception inside the block is catalyzed by a run beyond it. This requires each player to be completely clocked in to their teammates’ movements, allowing for a chemistry that has Immobile receiving deep and Locatelli running ahead in one sequence, and Locatelli receiving deep and Immobile running in behind in the next.
Immobile’s comfort doing both allows for Italy to manipulate opposition defenses in a variety of ways.
Out of their 5-2-3 structure, Switzerland man-marked both Locatelli and Barella and had Xherdan Shaqiri control Jorginho. As the game passed and the Swiss went down a couple goals, they became increasingly aggressive. This prompted Barella to drag Granit Xhaka to the ball, opening up a huge swathe of space for Immobile to collect vertical passes.
Man-marking is a suicidal endeavor against these types of patterns. This is a particular problem at the international level, where player-to-player schemes tend to be relied upon thanks to their simplicity. Italy will either manipulate the hell out of that or force you into defending more zonally, which takes time to drill right and will be relentlessly tested by the central occupation of Insigne and co. and the roaming of Locatelli and Barella.
It remains to be seen how Italy do against better high pressing and more capable low blocks, but it appears that they have all the tools to disorganize whichever side they come up against.
Italy’s Defensive Aggression
Mancini’s preference for vertical play and combinations in tight spaces does mean that Italy can be turnover prone. They mitigate this with one of the most intense counterpresses in the competition.
Italy’s presence in all vertical zones and numbers in the middle allows players to quickly converge on the space in question. It’s remarkable how aggressive everyone is at closing down ball-near options and jumping passing lanes. The only concerns are to compress space as much as possible, block off exit paths, and win the ball back.
The likes of Barella and Locatelli treat anyone receiving with their back to them as a pressing trigger, displaying surprisingly sophisticated mechanics for a national team.
Italy’s high pressing against opposition build-up play gives off a similarly frantic vibe, as it seems that anyone can initiate the strategy. Consequently, it’s often hard to tell whether Italy are defending from a 4-1-4-1, 4-4-2, or 4-3-3. Mancini’s emphasis is far more on individual principles (angled runs, cover shadowing, pressing intensity) and covering all immediate passing options rather than launching from one particular structure.
This affords them a real flexibility, allowing them to tackle back four’s like Turkey’s and back three’s like Switzerland’s.
Check out how many different players step up to press alongside Immobile:
Italy’s Potential Weaknesses
However, it is that very variable nature that might get them into trouble vs. top sides. The constantly changing assignments and Italy’s individual-oriented style can lead to breakdowns if communication is not spot on.
Even then, the extreme ball-side component of Italy’s strategy leaves swathes of space on the opposite flank that can be accessed by calmer, more talented ball players on bigger teams.
Italy’s counterpress is probably as good as it gets, but the sheer aggression of the midfielders can leave a gaping hole in front of the back line if someone makes the wrong read.
Jorginho, in particular, has always been an eager presser for a pivot player without a great ability to cover ground, and he’s one that hasn’t been tested by great counter-attacking talent as of yet.
This has to be an even bigger concern with Giorgio Chiellini leaving the pitch injured in the 24th minute vs. Switzerland. His replacement, Francisco Acerbi, is 33-years-old and neither Chiellini nor Bonucci are spring chickens themselves.
Does this Italy side have what it takes to contain Kylian Mbappé in transition?
Offensively, I have less qualms, though they can struggle to manage their width a bit.
Berardi’s tendency to come inside and the right back’s deep positioning in build-up can sometimes leave the right touchline unoccupied. This was a problem in the first half vs. Turkey, which was resolved by Berardi becoming more disciplined and operating as a classic winger.
He was certainly better about this vs. Switzerland but it was still an issue from time to time. Mancini might think about playing Federico Chiesa out there at some point, though Berardi’s individual form makes him undroppable at the moment.
Maintaining width on the opposite wing was also a problem vs. Turkey, as Leonardo Spinazzola’s right-footedness kept taking him back inside and into Insigne’s space. In the next group stage game, he did a much better job of driving onto his weaker foot and putting crosses into the box.
Even if that isn’t really his game, offering that kind of threat is necessary in order to stretch opponents and open up the central spaces that Italy love to access.
Are Italy the Real Deal?
I’m leaning to yes. The sophistication of their possession game can’t be ignored, even against relatively weak opposition, and they have high-quality individual talent that meshes well together while seemingly being well-suited to Mancini’s tactics.
My main skepticism lies on the defensive end. The success of their pressing and counterpressing is so dependent on intensity, making me wonder how that will hold up as the tournament reaches its latter stages, following one of the most grueling domestic seasons of all time.